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Saturday, October 12, 2013
Saturday, August 10, 2013
California energy efficiency: Lessons for the rest of the world, or not?
Efficiency standards appear to be at the center of US climate policy. But is this policy effective? This column argues that, thinking laterally, evidence suggests that there are reasons to be suspicious. If the US is to focus so heavily on energy efficiency, we ought to have a better understanding of its effectiveness.
Energy-efficiency standards for buildings and appliances and vehicles appear to be a central component of climate policy in the US. New energy-efficiency regulations account for 44% of projected greenhouse gas emissions reductions from California's Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, 36% of projected reductions from Massachusetts's 2008 Act, and about a third of the policy proposals in President Obama's June 2013 climate speech at Georgetown University.1 But do energy-efficiency standards work?
The highest profile piece of evidence supporting the efficacy of energy-efficiency regulations is Figure 1, which plots an index of residential electricity consumption per capita in California ? the bottom line, flat since the 1970s ? against that same index for the rest of the US (Rosenfeld and Poskanzer 2009). Many supporters of efficiency standards have cited the divergence in those two lines as evidence that California's first-in-the-nation building and appliance standards, enacted in the 1970s, have been effective. Those supporters include the World Bank, the US. Secretary of Energy, leading newspaper editorial pages, prominent environmental NGOs, and of course California's own regulators.2?
Figure 1.?Residential electricity per capita
There are, however, reasons to be suspicious. The gap between California's and other states' electricity consumption, depicted as the bottom line in Figure 2, preceded California's regulations and has grown steadily. And the five other states with the slowest electricity growth, also depicted in Figure 2, are California's neighbours: Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Hawaii. Perhaps California's relative electricity savings are the result of long-run trends peculiar to the western US and unrelated to California's regulations.
In Levinson (2013) I describe how those long-run changes can explain 88% of the gap between California's and other states' residential electricity consumption per capita, and how therefore Figure 1 doesn't prove what its proponents claim.
Figure 2.?Reasons to be suspicious
First, the population of the other 49 US states has gradually shifted to the south and west, where the climate is hotter and air conditioning more desirable, driving up electricity demand in those states. Figure 3 plots the population-weighted annual average cooling degree days in those other states over the past 50 years.3 It rose 19%, not because the climate changed but because the average non-Californian US citizen lived in a hotter place. This change by itself can explain 15% of the gap between California's and other states' residential electricity growth per capita.4 That's 15% for which California regulations cannot claim credit.
Figure 3.?Population-weighted cooling degree days in other states
Second, incomes have grown throughout the US over the past 50 years. Where the climate is harsh, income growth leads to more electricity demand for space heating and cooling, as depicted on the left side of Figure 4. Where the climate is mild, income growth leads to less of an increase in electricity use, as on the right side of Figure 4 (and in California). As a consequence, nationwide income growth has led to less electricity growth in California's mild climate than in the rest of the country. This difference by itself can explain 20% of the gap between California's and other states' residential electricity growth per capita. That's 20% for which California's regulators also deserve no credit.
Figure 4.?Residential electricity, household income, and climate
Third, there are economies of scale in residential energy consumption. Electricity use increases less than proportionately with household size, which means that electricity use per capita decreases with household size as depicted in Figure 5. While average household sizes have been shrinking throughout the US over the past 50 years, in California household sizes have remained nearly constant. California households effectively gained 0.6 members, on average, relative to other states. This change by itself can account for 40% of the gap between California's and other states' residential electricity consumption per capita.
Figure 5.?Electricity per capita decreases with household size
Combining the effects of climate, income, and household size, accounting for interactions among them, and adding other differences between California and the rest of the US, Levinson (2013) explains 88% of the gap between California's and other state's per capita electricity consumption. Figure 1, cited widely as evidence for the efficacy of energy-efficiency standards, is thus mostly due to changes unrelated to those standards. The famous figure doesn't demonstrate what its proponents claim.
To be clear, just because Figure 1 fails to prove that California's efficiency standards worked doesn't mean the standards didn't. Other states and the US federal government followed California's early lead and enacted their own building and appliance standards, and so perhaps residential electricity growth nationwide ? in California and other states ? has been lower than it would have been without those laws. If so, that outcome cannot be seen by comparing California to other states because both lines in Figure 1 may be lower than they would have been without efficiency standards. The result in Levinson (2013) does not prove that energy-efficiency standards didn't work; it only shows that the famous Figure 1 is uninformative.
Efficiency standards appear to be at the center of US climate policy. We ought to have a better understanding of their effectiveness.
California Air Resources Board (CARB) (2008), "Climate Change Scoping Plan".
California Public Utilities Commission and California Energy Commission (2006), "Energy Efficiency: California's Highest-Priority Resource".
Charles, Dan (2009), "Energy Efficiency: Leaping the Efficiency Gap", Science 325(5942), 804-811.
Massachusetts Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs (2010), "Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020: A report to the Great and General Court pursuant to the Global Warming Solutions Act".
Rosenfeld, Arthur H and Deborah Poskanzer (2009), "A Graph Is Worth a Thousand Gigawatt-Hours: How California Came to Lead the United States in Energy Efficiency", Innovations, Fall, 57-79, .
Levinson, Arik (2013), "California Energy Efficiency: Lessons for the Rest of the World, or Not?", NBER Working Paper No. 19123.
World Bank (2010), World Development Report 2010, Washington, DC.
1 See California Air Resources Board (2008); Massachusetts Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs (2010), p. ES-6; www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/25/remarks-president-climate....
2 World Bank (2010); Charles (2009); California Public Utilities Commission and California Energy Commission (2006).
3 Cooling degree days are the number of degrees that a day's average temperature is above 65?F.
4 California is large and has had its own share of internal population shifts. Since 1960 California?s population has migrated to less temperate regions, with a bit more electricity use per capita. If electricity consumption per capita in each California county is held constant at its 2010 level, the increasing share of the population in more energy-intensive counties would add 4 percent to the state?s overall per capita electricity consumption from 1960 to 2010.
Source: http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/9613
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Thursday, August 8, 2013
Accused Fort Hood shooter says 'War is an ugly thing'
By Lisa Maria Garza
FORT HOOD, Texas (Reuters) - Accused Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan said on Tuesday that war is an ugly thing with death and devastation on both sides, in a brief opening statement at his long-awaited trial for opening fire at a Texas base in 2009 and killing 13 U.S. soldiers.
Hasan, who was paralyzed from the chest down and is confined to a wheelchair after being shot by Fort Hood base police who ended his rampage, is representing himself at the court-martial.
"Witnesses will testify that war is an ugly thing. Death, destruction and devastation are felt from both sides, from friend and foe. Evidence from this trial will only show one side. I was on the wrong side but I switched sides," Hasan, an American-born Muslim, said in a roughly two minute-long opening statement.
Hasan, 42, who carried out the shooting on November 5, 2009, just days before he was to be deployed to Afghanistan, has said he shot the soldiers to try to stop what he has called a U.S. war on Islam. He killed 13 soldiers and wounded 32 others.
Prosecutors took about an hour to lay out their case against Hasan, saying that he intended to kill indiscriminately.
"Evidence will show that Hasan didn't want to deploy and he possessed a jihad duty to kill as many soldiers as possible," military prosecutor Colonel Steve Henricks said.
Hasan could be sentenced to death if convicted.
Hasan spoke very little during the opening statements and during testimony of the first witnesses at the trial on the sprawling military base between Dallas and Austin, Texas.
The first three witnesses were from a gun store near the base, where Hasan bought the pistol used in the shooting. The manager of "Gun's Galore" store, David Cheadle, said he showed Hasan how to assemble the pistol while Hasan recorded him on video.
Frederick Brannen, a former sales clerk at the store, testified that he sold Hasan the gun.
When the weapon was presented as evidence, Hasan said: "Your honor, that is my weapon."
Hasan was shot by base police. The soldiers were not armed because policy does not allow them to carry arms on base.
An Army psychiatrist at Fort Hood at the time of the shooting, Hasan has since apologized for being in the U.S. military and helping the U.S. response to the September 11, 2001 attacks. He has tried to renounce his U.S. citizenship.
A review by a former FBI director found Hasan had exchanged emails with Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S.-born cleric linked to al Qaeda's Yemen-based wing. Awlaki was killed in a U.S. drone strike.
The military judge for the court-martial, Colonel Tara Osborn, ruled on Friday that prosecutors may present evidence that Hasan was on the Internet in the days, and even hours, before the attack, searching terms such as "Taliban" and "jihad," which some radical Islamists define as a holy war.
Hasan has said he plans to call only two witnesses at trial, according to Fort Hood officials. The witnesses were not identified.
Hasan may cross-examine any witness, including survivors of the attack.
He faces 13 charges of premeditated murder and 32 charges of attempted premeditated murder. The dead included 12 active duty soldiers and a retired chief warrant officer who worked as a civilian employee at the base.
The jury of 13 Army officers includes nine colonels, three lieutenant colonels and a major.
The trial had been delayed repeatedly over procedural issues, such as whether he would be allowed to keep a beard that violates military grooming regulations, which he has said he wears for religious reasons.
Hasan had sought to use a "defense of others" strategy at trial, arguing that his actions were taken to protect Muslims and the Taliban in Afghanistan from U.S. assaults. Osborn denied that request.
Osborn rejected Hasan's offer to plead guilty in return for being spared the death penalty. A unanimous verdict of guilty is required for execution to be an option. The last execution carried out by the U.S. military was in 1961.
(Writing by Greg McCune; Editing by Claudia Parsons and Grant McCool)
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/fort-hood-accused-opens-defense-war-ugly-thing-171901366.html
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Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Kerry Washington's Friends Knew Nothing About Secret Wedding
Actress Kerry Washington wed American football star Nnamdi Asomugha with just her parents as witnesses.
The Django Unchained beauty tied the knot in secret in Hailey, Idaho on 24 June (13) and the nuptials were so low-key, none of their friends knew about it.
The only member of the groom's family to attend the wedding was the San Francisco 49ers cornerback's minister sister, Chisara, who officiated the ceremony with Washington's proud parents, Valerie and Earl, looking on.
A source tells Us Weekly magazine, "Nobody knew about it in advance. She told friends who found out in the news not to take it personally."
The couple had been dating for three years, but news of their romance and marriage only hit headlines last week (begs01Jul13).
The insider adds, "They dated very quietly. Kerry got to know him away from their careers and loved the real him."
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Consuming soy peptide may reduce colon cancer metastasis
[unable to retrieve full-text content]After a recent study showed that injection of the soy peptide lunasin dramatically reduced colon cancer metastasis in mice, researchers were eager to see how making lunasin part of the animals? daily diet would affect the spread of the disease.
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Unbeaten Scherzer gets no-decision in Tigers' win
By TOM WITHERS
AP Sports Writer
Associated Press Sports
updated 11:44 p.m. ET July 8, 2013
CLEVELAND (AP) - Nick Swisher rounded third, lost his footing in the soggy grass and fell flat on his face.
The Indians slipped some, too.
Unable to push across the winning run in the ninth inning, Cleveland lost 4-2 in 10 to Detroit on Monday night and fell another game behind the first-place Tigers in the AL Central.
The Indians dropped three of four to the defending division champions, who got a two-run double in the 10th from Victor Martinez off Matt Albers (1-2) and left town two games further ahead in the standings than when they arrived.
Detroit improved to 9-3 this season against Cleveland, which had some early scoring chances against unbeaten Max Scherzer and stranded 10 runners, including Drew Stubbs, who was left at second in the ninth.
"We left a small village on the sacks," said Swisher, who had two rough moments on the bases. "We've got to do a little better job there, but that's how baseball goes."
With the score tied 2-all, Mark Reynolds opened the ninth with a single off Bruce Rondon and Stubbs came in to pinch run. Drew Smyly (4-0) entered and his first pitch got by catcher Brayan Pena, allowing Stubbs to take second on the passed ball. Lonnie Chisenhall flied to center, but not deep enough to advance Stubbs.
Yan Gomes struck out and Michael Bourn flied out to end the inning and Cleveland's last chance to avoid extras.
Manager Terry Francona said he considered having Chisenhall bunt, and he was hoping Stubbs could steal third but said the speedy outfielder was having trouble getting traction on the wet dirt.
In the 10th, Albers got two quick outs before walking Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Martinez followed with a drive over Bourn's head that caromed off the wall, far enough away for two of Detroit's slowest runners to score. After Fielder slid across the plate, he popped up from the dirt and swung his arm in celebration.
The Indians had been 5-0 in extra-inning games.
"For us, it's a frustrating loss," Swisher said.
Cleveland threatened again in the 10th against closer Joaquin Benoit. With two outs, Swisher singled and moved up on defensive indifference. Michael Brantley followed with a single to right, and it appeared Swisher would score easily, but his feet went out from under him and he was forced to retreat to third.
It wasn't Swisher's only moment of embarrassment.
Leading off the eighth, he hit a squibber that hugged the third-base line and eventually rolled fair. However, Swisher never left the plate area and was tagged out by Pena.
"It's just a lesson learned the hard way," Francona said.
Swisher didn't offer any excuses.
"I thought it was going to go foul," he said. "In hindsight, I should have ran."
Benoit then struck out Mike Aviles for his seventh save.
Scherzer, attempting to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0, finished with a no-decision. He allowed two runs and seven hits in seven innings. The presumed AL starter in next week's All-Star game will take his unblemished mark into a start on Saturday against Texas.
"I don't want to focus much on that (being 13-0)," he said. "This was our best win of the year, and I was proud to be a part of it. The Indians battled so hard tonight and brought their `A' game, and we did, too.
"It was just a great team win, our best of the year."
Detroit widened its lead over Cleveland by two games on this visit, but manager Jim Leyland knows champions aren't crowned in July.
"We came in and had a very good series against a very good team, but I'm not really concerned about the standings," Leyland said. "Of course, I'd rather leave here up 3 1/2 games than up 1 1/2 games. But trust me, the Indians are not going anywhere, and we're not going anywhere, I don't think."
Cleveland came in with a reputation for beating Cy Young Award winners. The Indians have defeated seven former recipients this season, including Detroit's Justin Verlander. Scherzer is clearly the midseason favorite to win the AL honor in 2013, and while the Indians didn't hand him a loss, they did prevent him from beating them for the third time this year.
Scherzer wasn't at his best, and he was noticeably agitated on a night when the rain never really stopped. However, the 28-year-old got stronger as the game wore on. He gave up both runs - on a two-run single in the second by Chisenhall - and five hits in the first three innings, and pitched out of a couple of jams he created.
"He used to be a thrower and now he's a pitcher," Swisher said. "You've got a guy with all those weapons and he starts to figure it out, that doesn't make anybody happy."
Cleveland's Scott Kazmir went pitch for pitch with Scherzer, allowing just two runs and four hits in 5 2-3 innings.
Kazmir held the top four hitters - Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter, Cabrera and Fielder - in one of baseball's most feared lineups without a hit in 11 at-bats. The only one of the four to reach base was Cabrera, who walked with one out in the third.
NOTES: Indians 1B Mark Reynolds snapped an 0-for-24 drought with an infield single in the fourth. ... Chisenhall is batting .304 (17 of 56) with two homers and nine RBIs since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus on June 18. ... Former Indians SS Omar Vizquel was honored with a bobblehead giveaway and threw out the ceremonial first pitch to teammate Sandy Alomar Jr. ... The Indians open a three-game series Tuesday with Toronto. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (6-4) faces RHP Josh Johnson (1-3).
? 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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HBT: The All-Star Game will be ruined if another player wins MVP, then is banned for PEDs, a columnist says. But that's just silly.
HBT Daily: Phillies face critical juncture
??HBT Daily: Craig Calcaterra predicts strong numbers from Phillies Triple-A call-up Darin Ruf upon replacing the injured Ryan Howard. Also, after winning five of their last seven games, will management in Philadelphia look to buy or sell at the upcoming trade deadline?
Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/52426936/ns/sports-baseball/
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Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Westboro Baptist Church Escapee Lauren Drain Launches Cash Appeal
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Source: www.ibtimes.com --- Monday, July 08, 2013
Woman turns her back on hate cult and sets up campaign to return congregation members to society. ...
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